Description: Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects : Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies, Hardcover by Raydugin, Yuri G., ISBN 0198844336, ISBN-13 9780198844334, Brand New, Free shipping in the US Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in the majority of cases. Apparently, these methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important
components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects, the components associated with structural and delivery complexity are often overlooked.
Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on the most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Any mismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and
a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term (chronic) project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding.
Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A new methodology to factor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as “non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis” (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable of
forecasting project outcomes with high accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects, including notorious projects-outliers, and it has a much lower rate of systematic error.
In this book, the power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects, and the results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned.
All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available on ths companion website.
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Book Title: Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects : Non-linear Monte
Number of Pages: 376 Pages
Publication Name: Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects : Non-Linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies
Language: English
Publisher: Oxford University Press, Incorporated
Subject: General, Economics / General
Item Height: 1 in
Publication Year: 2020
Item Weight: 31.1 Oz
Type: Textbook
Author: Yuri G. Raydugin
Item Length: 10 in
Subject Area: Mathematics, Business & Economics
Item Width: 6.8 in
Format: Hardcover
