Probably Overthinking It: How to Use Data to Answer Questions, Avoid Statistical

Description: Probably Overthinking It by Allen B. Downey An essential guide to the ways data can improve decision making. Statistics are everywhere: in news reports, at the doctors office, and in every sort of forecast, from the stock market to the weather report. Blogger, teacher, and computer scientist Allen B. Downey knows well that we have both an innate ability to understand statistics and to be fooled by them. As he makes clear in this accessible introduction to statistical thinking, the stakes are big. Simple misunderstandings have led to incorrect patient prognoses, underestimated the likelihood of large earthquakes, hindered social justice efforts, and resulted in dubious policy decisions. There are right and wrong ways to look at numbers, and Downey will help you see which is which. Probably Overthinking It uses real data to delve into real examples with real consequences, drawing on cases from health campaigns, political beliefs, chess rankings, and more. He lays out common pitfalls—like the base rate fallacy, length-biased sampling, and Simpsons paradox—and shines a light on what we learn when we interpret data correctly, and what goes wrong when we dont. Using data visualizations instead of equations, he builds understanding from the basics to help you recognize errors—whether in your own thinking or media reports. Even if you have never studied statistics—or if you have and forgot everything you learned—this book will offer new insight into the methods and measurements that help us understand the world. FORMAT Hardcover CONDITION Brand New Author Biography Allen B. Downey is a curriculum designer at the online learning company Brilliant and professor emeritus of computer science at Olin College. He is the author of Think Python, Think Bayes, and Think Stats, among other books. He writes about statistics and related topics on his blog, Probably Overthinking It. Table of Contents Introduction 1. Are You Normal? Hint: No 2. Relay Races and Revolving Doors 3. Defy Tradition, Save the World 4. Extremes, Outliers, and GOATs 5. Better Than New 6. Jumping to Conclusions 7. Causation, Collision, and Confusion 8. The Long Tail of Disaster 9. Fairness and Fallacy 10. Penguins, Pessimists, and Paradoxes 11. Changing Hearts and Minds 12. Chasing the Overton Window Epilogue Acknowledgments Bibliography Index Review "Downey presents a large assortment of graphs and numerical results drawn from legitimate databases and provides clear-cut examples to demonstrate how interpretive pitfalls arise. His style is lively and designed to appeal to the curious reader, and his choice of graphical formats skillfully illustrates his points. He explains challenging issues fully in a clear, logical manner." * Choice *"Each statistical paradox is illustrated using a cluster of interesting and concrete examples. . . . Apart from making abstract concepts easier to grasp, the examples and illustrations used help to train readers to identify statistical paradoxes. As Downey claims at several points in the book, once you understand a statistical paradox, you will see it everywhere." * Metascience *"While it eschews the technical density of a textbook, it demands more intellectual engagement than a typical pop science book, drawing readers in with its broad scope of topics and colorful storytelling." * Implicit Assumptions *"[Downey] employs principles of mathematics and statistics to give insights into everyday phenomena . . . None of my teachers ever explained how practical and relevant math can be for gaining, solving, and understanding real-world problems. How I wish Downey had been my teacher!" * Sekar Writes *"Downeys pure love for the subject shines through abundantly, as does his social conscience and belief in the importance of statistical methods to illuminate the greatest, most challenging issues of our time." -- Aubrey Clayton, author of Bernoullis Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science"Probably Overthinking It shows how fascinating and interesting statistics can be. Readers dont need to be expert mathematicians. They just need to bring their curiosity about the world." -- Ravin Kumar, data scientist at Google"Probably Overthinking It is a delightful exposition of commonly-encountered statistical fallacies and paradoxes and why they matter. The illustrations are powerful and the prose is exceptionally clear. There are few domains of human activity to which the lessons of this volume are not applicable." -- Samuel H. Preston, coauthor of Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes"Mark Twain once observed that facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable. Downey understands just how that happens, even to people who are not trying to obfuscate. It was an honest researcher who in 1971 found data that seemed to indicate smoking by pregnant women might be good for their babies—a misinterpretation that may have delayed anti-smoking measures by a decade. In this clear and cogent analysis, Downey explains why the data was misunderstood, as well as much else. It is a valuable book." -- Floyd Norris, Johns Hopkins University, former chief financial correspondent for the New York Times Details ISBN0226822583 Author Allen B. Downey Pages 256 Publisher The University of Chicago Press Year 2023 ISBN-13 9780226822587 Format Hardcover Publication Date 2023-12-06 Imprint University of Chicago Press Subtitle How to Use Data to Answer Questions, Avoid Statistical Traps, and Make Better Decisions Country of Publication United States NZ Release Date 2023-12-06 US Release Date 2023-12-06 UK Release Date 2023-12-06 Illustrations 126 line drawings, 22 tables ISBN-10 0226822583 DEWEY 519.5 Audience Further / Higher Education AU Release Date 2024-03-04 We've got this At The Nile, if you're looking for it, we've got it. With fast shipping, low prices, friendly service and well over a million items - you're bound to find what you want, at a price you'll love! TheNile_Item_ID:158760113;

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